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⚡ FOMC COMMAND CENTER Sep 15–16, 2026 · Decision at 2:00pm ET · Warsh Press Conference 2:30pm ET
Federal Reserve
Rate Decision Day
Real-time intelligence · No anchor delay · Just the data
CURRENT FED FUNDS RATE
4.25–4.50%
Target range · Set Jul 30, 2026
⏱ FED DECISION IN
04
DAYS
:
04
HOURS
:
22
MINUTES
:
14
SECONDS
CUT 25BPS PROBABILITY
94.2%
Reference Data
▲ +1.4% today
HOLD PROBABILITY
5.8%
No change expected
▼ -1.4% today
EXPECTED NEW RATE
5.00–5.25%
If 25bps cut confirmed
— consensus view
10Y TREASURY NOW
4.770%
Most sensitive Fed indicator
▼ —
⚡ FED DECISION — 2:00:00pm ET
RATE CUT — 25BPS
NEW RATE: 5.00–5.25%
Unanimous vote · Statement released · Warsh speaks at 2:30pm
AD
Market Reaction · Live
Real-time asset response from the moment of decision · All prices updating live
CUT PROBABILITY GAUGE
Reference Data
HOLD 50/50 CUT
94.2%
CUT EXPECTED
YESTERDAY
92.8%
1 WEEK AGO
78.4%
1 MONTH AGO
41.2%
RATE PATH EXPECTATIONS
Reference Data · 2026–2027
Jun '26
5.00–5.25%
Sep '26
4.75–5.00%
Dec '26
4.50–4.75%
Mar '27
4.25–4.50%
Jun '27
4.00–4.25%
Based on Fed Funds Futures pricing. Educational reference only.
SEP ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
Median FOMC forecasts · SEP · JUNE 2026
202620272028Longer Run
GDP Growth1.8%1.9%2.0%1.8%
Unemployment4.3%4.2%4.1%4.0%
Core PCE Inflation2.6%2.3%2.1%2.0%
Source: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), released quarterly · Updated manually each release
2026 FOMC CALENDAR
8 meetings per year
Jan 27–28DONEHOLD
Mar 17–18DONE-25BPS
Apr 28–29DONE-25BPS
Jun 16–17DONE-25BPS
Jul 28–29DONE-25BPS
Sep 15–16 ★NEXTNEXT
Oct 27–28––
Dec 8–9––
2026 FOMC MINUTES CALENDAR
Released 21 days after each decision
Feb 18DONERELEASED
Apr 8DONERELEASED
May 20DONERELEASED
Jul 8DONERELEASED
Aug 19DONERELEASED
Oct 7 ★NEXTNEXT
Nov 18––
Dec 30––
Source: federalreserve.gov · Minutes release exactly 21 days after each decision's 2nd day
FOMC VOTING MEMBERS
2026 voter composition · 12 voting members
KW
Kevin Warsh
Chairman
HAWKISH
JW
John C. Williams
NY Fed · Vice Chair
NEUTRAL
MB
Michael S. Barr
Board of Governors
NEUTRAL
MB
Michelle W. Bowman
Board of Governors
HAWKISH
LC
Lisa D. Cook
Board of Governors
DOVISH
BH
Beth M. Hammack
Cleveland
HAWKISH
PJ
Philip N. Jefferson
Board of Governors
NEUTRAL
NK
Neel Kashkari
Minneapolis
NEUTRAL
LL
Lorie K. Logan
Dallas
HAWKISH
AP
Anna Paulson
Philadelphia
NEUTRAL
JP
Jerome H. Powell
Board of Governors
NEUTRAL
CW
Christopher J. Waller
Board of Governors
HAWKISH
Stance classifications based on public voting record and statements · Educational analysis only · Not investment advice
WARSH PRESS CONFERENCE
LIVE AT 2:30pm ET
Fed Chair
👤
KEVIN WARSH
Chair · Federal Reserve
PHOTO · UPDATE VIA ADMIN PANEL
FED DOT PLOT
FOMC member projections for the federal funds rate · SEP · JUNE 2026
Individual FOMC member projection
Median projection
Source: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), released quarterly · Updated manually each release
LIVE STATEMENT PARSER
Key Warsh quotes, tagged live via DeepTape editorial · Hawkish / Dovish / Neutral
FOMC MINUTES PARSER
Next Minutes: Aug 19, 2026 · 2:00pm ET
Minutes not yet released — key phrase changes, hawkish/dovish shift detection, and market reaction will appear here on release day.
DT INTELLIGENCE · FOMC BRIEF
COMING SOON
AI-powered Fed analysis · Generated within 10 minutes of statement release
Coming Soon — Pro/Pro+
WHAT WAS DECIDED
The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as widely expected, bringing the target range to 5.00–5.25%. The vote was unanimous — no dissents, signaling committee cohesion heading into a data-dependent period.
KEY LANGUAGE CHANGES
The phrase "additional firming may be appropriate" was removed — a clear dovish signal. "Inflation remains elevated" softened to "somewhat elevated." New addition: language acknowledging tariff uncertainty as an upside inflation risk.
WARSH'S TONE
More hawkish than the statement itself. Warsh emphasized patience, pushed back on aggressive cut expectations, and explicitly said they are "not in a hurry." Classic Fed speak for: don't price in more than 2 cuts this year.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR MARKETS
Equities rallied on the cut but gains may fade on Warsh's hawkish tone. Bond yields fell on the decision then partially reversed during Q&A. Dollar weakened initially. Bitcoin up 2.1% — risk-on reaction. Watch the 10Y yield — if it reverses above 4.30% the equity rally is in trouble.
Educational analysis only · Not investment advice · DeepTape.ai
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OPTIONS FLOW REACTION
Net dollar flow post-decision · Call vs Put buying
SPY
+$2.4BCALLS
QQQ
+$1.8BCALLS
TLT
+$840MCALLS
GLD
+$420MCALLS
VIX
-$280MPUTS
Net options flow suggests risk-on positioning post-decision. Educational data only.
FED NEWS TAPE
LIVE
Reuters · 2:58pm ET
FED CUTS 25BPS AS EXPECTED — WARSH SIGNALS PATIENCE ON FURTHER EASING
FOMCRATES
Bloomberg · 2:54pm ET
TREASURY YIELDS FALL THEN PARTIALLY RECOVER AS WARSH PUSHES BACK ON CUT TIMELINE
BONDS
Benzinga · 2:51pm ET
S&P 500 RALLIES 1.4% ON RATE CUT — VIX DROPS BELOW 18
MARKETS
Reuters · 2:47pm ET
BOWMAN DISSENTS — PREFERRED LARGER CUT OF 50BPS, MINUTES WILL SHOW DEBATE
FOMC
Benzinga · 2:44pm ET
BITCOIN SURGES 2.1% ON RATE CUT — CRYPTO MARKETS RALLY ACROSS THE BOARD
CRYPTO
AP · 2:41pm ET
DOLLAR WEAKENS POST-DECISION — DXY DROPS 0.38%, GOLD HITS $3,284
FXGOLD
AD
RECENT FOMC DECISIONS
Decision · SPX reaction · 10Y yield move
DATE
DECISION
SPX
10Y
Jun '26-25bps+1.42%-0.043
Mar '26-25bps+0.88%-0.028
Jan '26HOLD-0.34%+0.012
Dec '25-25bps+1.12%-0.038
Nov '25HOLD-0.71%+0.024
Sep '25-50bps+2.44%-0.082
NEXT MEETING PROBABILITY
Sep 15–16 · Updated post-decision
Another -25bps cut34.2%
Hold62.8%
Hike 25bps3.0%
Based on Fed Funds Futures post-decision repricing. Not investment advice.
AD
KEY MACRO INDICATORS
Data the Fed is watching · FRED
CPI YoY
3.4%
Core PCE
2.8%
Unemployment
4.1%
GDP Growth
2.4%
10Y Yield
4.770%
2s10s YIELD CURVE
10Y minus 2Y Treasury spread · FRED (T10Y2Y)
+0.41%
Positively sloped · Not inverted
2Y Treasury
3.85%
10Y Treasury
4.26%
A negative spread (inverted curve) has historically preceded recessions. Educational data only · Not investment advice.